CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID 15Z FRI 23/07 - 06Z SAT 24/07 2004
ISSUED: 23/07 15:30Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across E France ... Switzerland ... S Germany ... N Italy ... W Chech Republic ... Austria ... N Balkans.

General thunderstorms are forecast across SW Europe ... central Europe ... E Europe.

SYNOPSIS

Refer to yesterday's convective forecast.

DISCUSSION

...Modifications to the SLGT area...
Have adjusted the SLGT somewhat to the N to include possible low-level shear modifications over the central-German mountains. CAPE is expected to be on the order of 1000 J/kg based on (modified) 12Z soundings ... and with 10 m/s deep-layer shear plus locally enhanced SRH/low-level shear ... an isolated mesocyclone or two may occur ... posing primarily a threat for large hail. Over N Germany ... CAPE appears to be somewhat lower. The mean environment appears to be sampled by the Bergen 12Z ascent rather well ... and given the weak shear and weak CAPE ... the TSTM outlook appears to be sufficient ATTM.

...Spain...
First high-based TSTMS have initiated in the nearly uncapped environment over E Spain ... and deeply mixed/dry CBLs suggest that a few downbursts will be possible there. However ... allover severe threat should be too low for a SLGT.

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